5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 02:54:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 03:21:54 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180504
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.
East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Development of
this system is not expected while it moves westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
...POORLY ORGANIZED GABRIELLE BATTLING STRONG WIND SHEAR AS IT JOGS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 17 the center of Gabrielle was located near 19.5, -49.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025000 WTNT32 KNHC 180249 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GABRIELLE BATTLING STRONG WIND SHEAR AS IT JOGS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 49.5W ABOUT 895 MI...1435 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 49.5 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion between west-northwest and northwest is expected for the next few days. Recent satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center, mostly to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025461 WTNT22 KNHC 180248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 30SW 150NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 49.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.3N 51.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.3N 52.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.2N 54.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.3N 56.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 58.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.8N 60.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 28.9N 62.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 32.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025000 WTNT42 KNHC 180252 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 17 2025 The overall structure of Gabrielle hasn't changed too much. The cloud pattern of the cyclone consists of a large comma shape. GOES-19 CIRA proxy-vis imagery and a recent 17/2342 UTC ASCAT-B overpass clearly indicate that the surface wind center is at the bottom of the upper portion of the comma head. The strongest ASCAT wind vectors are the same magnitudes as the pass from 12 hours prior, so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. Gabrielle still has a very large and broad envelope of convection and winds. It is quite atypical to see a structure like this for a tropical cyclone in this part of the world. Strong westerly shear should continue on Thursday, then gradually abate at some point on Friday. The other factor that is detrimentally impacting Gabrielle is the very dry air seen on water vapor imagery in the open area of the comma, to the south and west of the center. Even after the shear abates, Gabrielle will continue moving through an environment of dry air through Friday, with moistening along its path over the weekend. The official intensity forecast has been decreased during the 24-48 h period, in agreement with most of the reliable intensity guidance. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, then near the high end of the guidance thereafter, and still calls for Gabrielle to be a hurricane at days 4-5. The center has jogged westward since the previous advisory, but the longer term motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/14 kt. A similar motion is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest as Gabrielle moves on the south side of a subtropical ridge. Over the weekend, the cyclone should round the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn northwestward as it catches up to a slow-moving upper-level low that should be located just west of Gabrielle. A northward motion is expected in 4-5 days as Gabrielle gets closer to the mid-latitude westerlies, which should induce a northeastward turn in about 5 days. The new NHC track forecast is shifted significantly to the left (southwest) of the previous forecast through 72 h but near the previous track again at days 4-5. The forecast is in fairly good agreement with the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean through 72 h, then leans toward the HCCA Corrected Consensus at days 4-5. Track forecast confidence remains relatively low. This system should pass well east and north of the Leeward Islands, but interests in Bermuda should monitor forecasts during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 19.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 20.3N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 21.3N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 22.2N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 23.3N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 24.5N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 25.8N 60.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 28.9N 62.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 32.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025 000
FONT12 KNHC 180249
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0300 UTC THU SEP 18 2025
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 23(33)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 02:54:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 18 Sep 2025 03:21:54 GMT