Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 14:52:30 GMT
674
ABNT20 KNHC 011122
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Edouard, located over the northwestern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Edouard are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EDOUARD IS STRENGTHENING... ...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE EDOUARD REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 the center of Edouard was located near 29.4, -93.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026147 WTNT35 KNHC 011445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Edouard Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND EDOUARD IS STRENGTHENING... ...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE EDOUARD REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 93.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island, Texas to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Bolivar, Texas to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 93.3 West. Edouard is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Edouard is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area later today and move inland over southeast Texas tonight. Data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before Edouard makes landfall today, and the storm could approach hurricane strength. Rapid weakening is expected after the center moves inland. Edouard is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Edouard can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread over portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area later today. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...3-5 ft Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Edouard is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the Upper Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas, with potential for 2 to 4 inches in far southwest Louisiana. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Edouard, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and evening over parts of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026000 WTNT25 KNHC 011444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 93.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 93.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.2N 94.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 93.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026000 WTNT45 KNHC 011446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 Edouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has been trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles, Louisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of the system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable increase in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and a recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary layer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably strengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these data to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial intensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb. Environmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional strengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very warm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane regional models continue to highlight the potential for continued strengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard is well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected that cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of the Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved radar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional strengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) beginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely to rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday. Some short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the past few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is northwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard onshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this afternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the previous prediction based on the latest consensus trends. Key Messages: 1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the southwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron later today. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, where peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible. 3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday as Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 29.4N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/1200Z 31.2N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026 000
FONT15 KNHC 011445
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
LAKE CHARLES 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
CAMERON LA 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
JASPER TX 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
KOUNTZE TX 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
GALVESTON TX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHARTIssued at 855 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026000 WTNT65 KNHC 011353 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 855 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 ...EDOUARD STRENGTHENING... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and WSR-88D radar data from Lake Charles, Louisiana, indicate that Edouard is now strengthening, and maximum sustained winds are up to 50 mph (85 km/h). SUMMARY OF 855 AM CDT...1355 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 93.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Sep 2026 14:52:30 GMT
